March-March 2023
Despite the role played by Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman in melting the ice between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the past two years, Tehran and Riyadh contented themselves with thanking them only when they chose Beijing as the venue for the official announcement of the normalization of relations between them, on Friday the 10th. This March, after four days of negotiation between two high-ranking delegations, for example, the two parties.
China’s choice to end the estrangement between the two arch regional rivals can not only be understood as a result of the peace initiative presented to them recently by Chinese President Xi Jinping, but also involves four other important connotations that cannot be overlooked, namely:
1- In conflicts between the main regional powers, non-influential powers can play a role in mediation initiatives and good offices between them, but they do not represent an appropriate place to announce final agreements, especially when they become, in the eyes of their neighbors, a soft place that is resorted to when necessary to settle scores and show muscle. Therefore, such state parties are not guarantors of any final solution, unlike the case with China, which is an emerging major power that enjoys attractiveness and acceptance and has the ability to provide the necessary guarantees to the two parties. China, in the eyes of Tehran and Riyadh, is not just a table for negotiation and dialogue, as is the case with Baghdad and Oman, but rather an international force that supervises agreements and monitors the commitment of each party to them.
2- The event reveals the extent of the Chinese penetration of US interests in the world. Beijing is no longer content with quarrels through trade, maritime, military and other agreements. Rather, it has gone beyond that to be a maker of unexpected events, so it was able to persuade the largest US allies in the Middle East, that is, Riyadh. To move – perhaps – other than what you like and want, which makes the staggering of US policies in the world not much different from the staggering that appeared on President Biden several times during his presidency. The success of Chinese mediation in the Middle East is not only a Saudi spit in the face of US-Israeli policies in the region, as expressed by some Israeli media. .
3- The decline of the American role in the region, which appeared since President Obama’s term in 2009, and was interpreted by some as an American desire to devote itself to facing geostrategic challenges in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, and later in Eastern Europe, that is, facing the challenge posed by China and Russia Perhaps it is more than just an arrangement of strategic priorities, in the sense that it is an indication of a real and continuous strategic decline of the American leadership in the world. Or international axes, and this may allow countries to maneuver between these poles and axes more freely at times, and perhaps this is what the decision-makers in Iran and Saudi Arabia understood, which encouraged them to move towards normalizing their relations in Beijing.
4- The announcement by the two parties (Iranian and Saudi) of normalization between them at this time may be due to their reaching a conviction that the conflict between them is not suitable for their higher interests. She lives in a state of stability, meekness, and devotion to the success of the ambitious prince’s plans and his vision for the kingdom in the year 2030, and her failure to do so due to external adventures or internal turmoil means strengthening the front of his opponents in the royal family and society and exposing his future assuming the throne to great danger. As for Iran, for its part, it is not in a better condition. Its Supreme Leader, Sayyed Ali Khamenei, despite his old age, has been going through a critical health condition for some time, and the internal conflict between the wings of power is constantly escalating, in addition to the growing popular unrest resulting from the different intellectual and political orientations. Society is between the generation of adults who lived through the Islamic Revolution and still believes in its discourse, and the generation of young people who feel degraded from this discourse and unwilling to believe in it. Western sanctions and Iran’s involvement in the region’s files have contributed to increasing the gap between the wings of the authority itself, and between it and the popular base, and in In such a fragile and unstable situation, the disappearance of the Supreme Leader is a bad omen for the regime, and it may put it in very difficult scenarios. What we mean is that the internal situation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is passing through a pivotal crossroads, and they urgently need to devote themselves to arranging their internal home, so that things pass peacefully, and this encouraged them to take this important step in their relations, as the expected gains from peace are much greater than The dangers arising from the continuation of hostility between them.
مزيد من المعلومات عن هذا النص المصدريجب إدخال نص مصدر للحصول على معلومات إضافية عن الترجمة.
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